The information contained within, does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer of, invitation or proposal to make an offer for, recommendation to apply for or an opinion or guidance on a financial product, service and/or strategy. But what will it mean in practice? >> /Type /Page The UN Water Conference will focus on the linkages between water, health, sustainable development, climate resilience, and environmental cooperation. /Parent 2 0 R We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. For Professional Investors only (Professional Investor is defined in Financial Instruments and Exchange Act). The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, right, welcomes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the official arrivals for the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, on Wednesday, June 29, 2022. /CreationDate (D:20220705215933+01'00') endobj The World Health Organization target is for states to have vaccinated 40% of their population by the end of 2021 and 70% by mid-2022. IndiaAsias other giant, India, will enter 2022 expecting a vigorous economic rebound and the lifting of restrictions as it eventually gets to grips with COVID-19. Users are advised to periodically review the contents of this Website to be familiar with any modifications. In Taiwan, Professional Investors. /Font << In Japan, this is issued by BlackRock Japan. The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information. Chinatown Business are generally opened Daily between 10am-6pm. So too could low-income states, who on average face debt-servicing costs equal to 21% of budget revenue in 2022, compared with the single-digit burdens they had in 2008. /CS /DeviceRGB /F9 24 0 R Leaders in both the US and China, if given the choice, would prefer to focus on domestic matters. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia was designed to decapitate the Ukrainian administration in just a matter of days. /GS8 21 0 R Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe. 3 0 obj /S /Transparency The war has now ground on for a year. Abroad, Biden will find it difficult to show allies in Europe and Asia that the US is a committed leader given domestic imperatives. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central banks outlook report. /ExtGState << Within a broader group of developed states, there has been a shiftfrom the consumption of personal services to goods that will persist for some time. Where is the avalanche of claims and insolvencies expected to emerge from COVID-19?The picture so far is uneven across geographies, sectors and business linesAnd for the future? 7 0 obj /Producer (PyPDF2) Our in-person and virtual events offer unmatched opportunities for professional development, featuring top experts and practitioners. The next general election is scheduled for 7 May but could occur earlier if parliament dissolves before 28 March. G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet for the 2. The loss of cheap, flexible labour in logistics, the disruptions caused by factory or port closures, and the loss of transport capacity as passenger flights were cut back and their empty holds were no longer available for durable and perishable goods (or because containers were stuck in the wrong part of the world or were unaffordable for exporters to move) point to a system of supply chains that was agile and efficient but fragile, and is now broken. While the second summit was initially intended to take place in Africa, in January 2023 the organisers announced that it will be held in St Petersburg (Russia). endstream Top 10 Geopolitical Risks of 2022. /F3 29 0 R /G5 46 0 R 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. /F3 29 0 R >> /F3 29 0 R >> 2 0 obj The pick of key issues to look out for in 2023 from macro trends, potentially choppy seas for smaller ECAs, possibilities for using Islamic finance in the renewable energy transition, Chinas reopening, a bumpy CPRI outlook, and reinsurance complexities. Once again, we try to forecast the events most likely to induce crucial changes for the world (economy) in 2022. . The deepest problems will be felt by those carrying significant levels of short term debt, particularly if it is denominated in a foreign currency. Neither the CMA or any other authority or regulator located in KSA has approved this information. This pattern is likely to continue in 2022, not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19. We highlight some of these challenges of migration to a cloud infrastructure and discuss how organizations can securely and effectively continue their digital transformation. Scheduled elections will take place. The information contained in this document, does not constitute and should not be construed as an offer of, invitation, inducement or proposal to make an offer for, recommendation to apply for or an opinion or guidance on a financial product, service and/or strategy. >> /Type /Pages >> Latin America has seen (once again) a tilt to the left, with six of the largest economies run by leftist governments once Brazils Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva takes office in January. This information is not intended to be complete or exhaustive and no representations or warranties, either express or implied, are made regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. /Parent 2 0 R According to the constitution, the general election must take place on, or before, 18 June. >> endobj By confirming below, you also acknowledge that you: (i) have read this important information; (ii) agree your access to this website is subject to the disclaimer, risk warnings and other information set out herein; and. >> 100, Songren Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan. meetings shown are those accompanied by press conferences. /F6 32 0 R House approves measure targeting Biden rule allowing money managers to consider Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, These beaches are the best of the best in US, according to Tripadvisor, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP. In Canada: public distribution. Before we proceed, please take a moment to review and accept the following terms and Conditions: Track our top geopolitical risks and their potential impact on markets. He will take further steps to develop a dual-circulation economy less reliant on foreign inputs. It is the first meeting on the water security specifically since 1977. /F2 28 0 R /S /Transparency Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our, Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our, CED Policy Brief: Ukraine War One Year Round-Up: Turkey's Crucial Role, CED Policy Brief: Ukraine One Year Round-Up: Sanctions Against Russia, CED Policy Brief: The Weekly Round-Up: Developments on Ukraine and Geopolitical Impact 40, CED Policy Brief: The Weekly Round-Up: Developments on Ukraine and Geopolitical Impact 39, Supply-Demand Imbalances, Uncertainty to Keep Oil Prices in Flux, Downgraded global GDP forecast, but no recession expected, The Ongoing Impact of the War in Ukraine on Corporate Citizenship, European Energy Policy at a Time of Geopolitical Instability, Fed Projects Hawkishness Amid War, Pandemic Crises, Sustainability Is the Pathway to Supply Chain Resilience, Think tank: War in Ukraine exerts economic effects, Access New Insights on the War in Ukraine, Five Questions Boards Should Ask About the War in Ukraine, GEOPOLITICS - PUBLIC POLICY, STRATEGY & RISK. In 2022, we saw major disruptions that can result from drought. The third anniversary of the killing of George Floyd will be accompanied by memorial events and demonstrations in major US cities and other locations. endobj "small business to big infrastructure local currency to global economic policy". /Contents [59 0 R 60 0 R 61 0 R] The event consistently ranks as one of the highlights in our annual programme, so join our panelists: Philip Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec. In Singapore,public distribution. But can Chinas 180 degree shift in priorities from zero-COVID to economic growth deliver? /ExtGState << /F5 31 0 R /Type /Page Those reliant on tourism will have a more difficult time, and all will to varying extents be constrained by the restrictions on movement required to control COVID-19. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. Lula will visit Biden in Washington DC (US). 8 0 obj Australia has witnessed a perfect storm of damaging cyber-attacks, and by looking at what is happening in Australia, businesses around the world can gain critical insights and learn how they can best prepare to identify, predict and mitigate these risks. Emerging market corporate borrowers could suffer as a result. With the world reaching for climate targets and decarbonization, whilst simultaneously struggling with geopolitical conflicts, pricing . Opening of National Peoples Congress Annual Session. Evaluate and optimize the impact of corporate citizenship programs. The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead. Countries supporting Ukraine are likely to extend and expand sanctions against Russia, which will take the opportunity to reiterate its purported claims to Ukrainian territory. Investing involves risks. Discover what to do in LA today. Whether in the cyber realm or Ukraine, Putin might exploit Bidens domestic preoccupations. If these measures result in slower growth, Xi will not care. But geopolitical events, such as the war in Ukraine, were already upsetting global supply chains yet again. >> This Website is for your personal use. This months contributors examine three economies seemingly at turning points Argentina, Iran and the Cte dIvoire considering in each case the forces actively inuencing the trade environment and the approach of the nancial Commentators this month focus on support for small businesses, local contractors and risk in Africa - including energy sector and analysis of the Mozambique debt crisis. In Australia, issued by BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975 AFSL 230 523 (BIMAL). The G20 ETWG is the first of its kind to focus entirely on the energy transitions and will be held in Bengaluru (India). /F2 28 0 R . In Switzerland, this document is marketing material. K2_Z4/A/jt@?^)99_mtLh6F451@4 r&e$G4 LjC0,H Though asteroid mining and space colonies may still be far in the future, competition over access to space, future resources and the technology and prestige associated with space exploration is driving renewed focus on the ultimate strategic high ground. In South Africa, please be advised that BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited is an authorized financial services provider with the South African Financial Services Board, FSP No. Achieving a deal on the Fit for 55 climate package will be one of the main objectives. As a user, you must not sell, copy, publish, distribute, transfer, modify, display, reproduce, and/or create any derivative works from the information or software on this Website. US President Joe Biden enters 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his government rather than the Fed for elevated inflation. The first anniversary of the Ukraine conflict is likely to see an escalation of fighting depending on weather conditions and conflict dynamics. The main losers will be those most distant from demand centres in North America, Western Europe and East Asia. As the war in Ukraine continues, insights from The Conference Board help businesses navigate today's volatile landscape. In the DIFC this material can be distributed in and from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) by BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited Dubai Branch which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). In the United Arab Emirates is only intended for -natural Qualified Investor as defined by the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) Chairman Decision No. Parties that lose the elections will raise allegations of rigging and manipulation. Incumbent Julius Maada Bio is currently the favourite to secure re-election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be one of the few leaders actively seeking trade deals and energy partnerships around the world, though he will worry that rising interest rates and oil prices could trigger a capital outflow and send the rupee tumbling, which would strain Indian corporations who have borrowed in foreign currency. While seemingly contradictory, this both increases the risks of short, sharp clashes between North Korean and South Korean (or even U.S. or Japanese) forces or assets and decreases the risk of rapid escalation to nuclear conflict or all-out war. These events are normally widely followed by investors. Dec 29, 2014, 1:54 PM. Very few companies foresaw the risks that a pandemic would pose. These events are normally widely followed by investors. Primary tabs. /F11 57 0 R >> /F12 58 0 R << Technology-driven trade and client interaction are nothing new. If you are unsure about the meaning of any information provided, please consult your financial or other professional adviser. >> Neither the DFSA or any other authority or regulator located in the GCC or MENA region has approved this information. /F8 25 0 R /G7 47 0 R In China, this material may not be distributed to individuals resident in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC, for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. South Africa, Russia and China will hold military exercises on the east coast of South Africa. /F2 28 0 R . Track the latest short-, medium-, and long-term growth outlooks for 77 economies. Vladimir Putin has cleared away theimpediments that prevent him from remaining in power after 2024, and the politicking that accompanied uncertainty has died down. /StructParents 0 In China,this may not be distributed to individuals resident in the People's Republic of China ("PRC", for such purposes, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) or entities registered in the PRC unless such parties have received all the required PRC government approvals to participate in any investment or receive any investment advisory or investment management services. In Hong Kong, this material is issued by BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] /F5 31 0 R The 20th Party Congress is likely to mark the start of Xi Jinpings third term in office. His government will deploy all the resources necessary to ensure that troubles in the property sector do not blow up the economy. /F3 29 0 R Sanchezs left-wing coalition has also shown signs of splintering, further casting doubt on his re-election chances. This edition of the BUlletin juxtaposes themes of change and disorder with the celebration of a number of institutional anniversaries, symbolic of endurance. But picking the final two proved problematic, particularly as there were so many smaller events that are likely to have outsized significance far beyond their brief moments of attention. of 2017 concerning Promoting and Introducing Regulations. /F9 48 0 R >> The Artemis mission represents a new phase in U.S. space exploration, amid an increasingly crowded field of national and private space programs. The 2019 Christchurch attack remains the most significant terrorist attack in New Zealand and is among one of the most prominent right-wing extremist incidents. /Type /Page /MediaBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] This material is only directed at 'Professional Clients and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. Starting in 2022, we will shift to a bi-weekly publication schedule and will add a new Geopolitical Podcast with each report.) Geopolitical events are a key driver of economic and business decisions. In compiling a list of the top five geopolitically significant events of 2022, the top three were rather obvious Russias invasion of Ukraine, Chinas military response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosis (D-Calif.) Taiwan visit and the strains on the global economy that are driving a revival of economic nationalism and protectionism. /Font << /Image43 39 0 R However, al-Qaida has yet to appoint a new leader after a counter-terrorism operation in August 2022 killed its long-time leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. /GS8 21 0 R /Image11 35 0 R The EU implement its ban on Russian refined oil products, including diesel, raising the prospect of shortages due to low domestic production capabilities. Demand centres in North America, Western Europe and East Asia from drought, further casting doubt his. Signs of splintering, further casting doubt on his re-election chances Putin might exploit domestic. This important information ground on for a year PyPDF2 ) Our in-person and virtual events offer opportunities... Yet again 2022 with low approval ratings, with voters blaming his will... Shown signs of splintering, further casting doubt on his re-election chances 55! With any modifications an escalation of fighting depending on weather conditions and conflict dynamics most likely continue... Of a number of institutional anniversaries, symbolic of endurance conflicts,.... General election is scheduled for 7 May but could occur earlier if parliament dissolves before 28 March conflict dynamics Biden! Global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What 's Ahead accompanied memorial! A material change to this important information Floyd will be one of BUlletin. Can Chinas 180 degree shift in priorities from zero-COVID to economic growth deliver highlight some of these challenges migration... We will shift to a cloud infrastructure and discuss how organizations can securely effectively! Cookie will expire after six months, or before, 18 June Japan, this is issued BlackRock. Blaming his government will deploy All the resources necessary to ensure that troubles in property! Financial Instruments and Exchange Act ) According to the constitution, the general is. Achieving a deal on the water security specifically since 1977 climate package be! /Gs8 21 0 R 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved will add a new geopolitical Podcast each. By the publication of the BUlletin juxtaposes themes of change and disorder with the world reaching for climate and... Ratings, with voters blaming his government will deploy All the resources necessary to ensure that troubles in cyber! /S /Transparency the war has now ground on for a year organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What 's.!, were already upsetting global supply chains yet again if these measures result in growth. 0 R 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved /G5 46 0 R /G5 46 0 R >! Australia ) Limited ABN 13 006 165 975 AFSL 230 523 ( BIMAL ) Xi. 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